Oscar Predictions

The 83^rd Academy Awards are just hours away. Some people dismiss the event as an overwrought self-congratulatory party for the rich and famous of Hollywood. It’s hard to argue this point too much, but in the end its films biggest night. Regardless of the spectacle, it puts film in the spotlight, brining to the forefront movies which otherwise might not get the attention they deserve. For me, it means a month long movie cram session catching up on the best films of the year. This year I was able to get through nearly all of the nominated films and in my annual tradition I will give my pre-Oscar predictions for the films I think will win, and the ones I think should win.

Best Picture

It’s the second year of the new format, nominating 10 films. This, by all regards, is too many. Giving away so many nominations deflates the prestige of the nomination. Now, it’s only really an honor if the film wins. This said, it fits with what the awards show is. It’s a glorified advertisement for Hollywood and the more nominations the more money they can make on films that people wouldn’t ordinarily see.

After watching each film nominated I had almost the exact same reaction. Good movie, but not ‘award worthy’. So I’m left in a bit of a predicament, I didn’t love any of the nominated awards, but I liked them quite a bit.

The three films that I enjoyed the most out of the bunch only beat out the other nominated films narrowly. My top three would be the Coen brothers back to basic Western ‘True Grit’, Aronofsky’s intense thriller ‘Black Swan’ and Pixar’s perfectly executed sequel ‘Toy Story 3’.  Ultimately, I’m going to give my pick for the award to ‘Black Swan’ for sheer brilliant filmmaking and for the originality Aronofky showed in crafting his work.

 I don’t think any of these three films will end up taking home the award. Based on the buzz going into the ceremony, it looks like ‘The Kings Speech’ has the win in the bag, with ‘The Social Network’ a possibility. The early awards will be an indicator of which way the night will go. If ‘Kings Speech’ starts winning most of the minor awards it will be a lock to win the big one. I can’t say I will be all too disappointed if it does. It is a fantastic film, perfectly acted and immensely engaging. It is the best possible movie about a king with a speech impediment, but lets face it, there is a ceiling on how great any movie on this subject matter can be.

Will Win: The Kings Speech

Should Win: Black Swan

Best Actor

With all the buzz about ‘The Kings Speech’ going into the awards, Colin Firth seems to be a lock to bring home best actor. He was the key piece in a performance driven drama, and he was excellent. He made a stuttering king relatable and interesting. This is no small feat.

My problem is that I always root against the choice that has such a great affectation. With such an obvious vocal tick its easy to mistake an impersonation with great acting. Firth is certainly a great actor, but his performance is more easily pegged for an award because of the character. I had the same feelings for Philip Seymour Hoffman in ‘Capote’ and Sean Penn in ‘Milk’.

All things considered, I’d go with Jeff Bridges role in ‘True Grit’. Without his performance, the movie would not have worked for me. He is the epitome of gruff and his laid back gunslinger attitude is endlessly rewatchable

Will Win: Colin Firth

Should Win: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress

This is one of the categories where I missed seeing a nomination. I didn’t see ‘Blue Valentine’ so I won’t be considering Michelle Williams performance.

Going into the show, it looks like Natalie Portman will be taking home the award. I take some issue with this, as I thought her performance was questionable at times in an otherwise fantastic movie. Instead I’d give the award to Nicole Kidman in ‘Rabbit Hole’. Her role as a grieving mother was powerful and understated. A great performance was the highlight in an altogether underrated film.

Will Win: Natalie Portman

Should Win: Nicole Kidman

Best Supporting Actor

I loved Geoffrey Rush in ‘The Kings Speech’ as much as anyone, but also like everyone else, was in awe of Christian Bale’s drugged out performance in ‘The Fighter’.

Will Win: Christian Bale

Should Win: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress

A lot of names have been thrown around as possible winners for this award with Helena Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld and Jacki Weaver all getting some much deserved attention.

My problem is that Helena Carter played such a small role in ‘The Kings Speech’ she never really left a mark in my mind. The opposite was true for Hailee Steinfeld who really has no business being nominated in this category when she was actually a lead actress appearing in nearly every scene. She was fine, but I wasn’t as blown away as everyone else.   Weaver on the other hand didn’t do anything at all for me in ‘Animal Kingdom’.

No, for me this is an easy choice. Melissa Leo playing the psychotic mother in ‘The Fighter’ easily gets my vote.

Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld

Should Win: Melissa Leo

Best Documentary

This was hands down my favorite category to prep for. Every documentary I saw (all but Waste Land) I thought was award worthy. Each one was powerful, moving or just plain entertaining. When all is said in done, if I were to recommend just one these great films, I’d have to go with ‘Gas Land’ for the pure ire it stirred in me.

Will Win: Inside Job

Should Win: Gas Land

Best Live Action Sort

Every year I go out and make sure I catch all of the nominated short films. Prior to doing this it was just another category to sit through before getting to the good stuff. I’d recommend everyone trying to watch these as they are very well done (and available on iTunes).

Will Win: Wish 143

Should Win: The Crush

Best Animated Short

I was a bit disappointed this year with the selection of animated films. The only too that I really can say I enjoyed was the Pixar short ‘Day and Night’ and the wonderfully animated ‘The Gruffalo’ based on a children’s book. In the end I’m going with the Gruffalo just because it was the most comprehensive story of the bunch.

Will Win: Day and Night

Should Win: The Gruffalo

Best Short Documentary

Will Win: The Warriors of Qiugang

Should Win: The Warriors of Qiugang

Best Foreign Film

This is usually my favorite category, but unfortunately this year I couldn’t get a hold of many films prior to the awards. I did see Dogtooth, and most of ‘Outside the Law’, both of which didn’t overwhelm me. I’m going with Biutiful, because I’m not sure where else to go.

Will Win: Biutiful

Should Win: Biutiful

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: The Kings Speech

Should Win: Inception

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Social Network

Should Win: Toy Story 3