2010 Oscar Predictions

I tried really hard to get all the movies watched this year.  But I fell just short.  I do have most of the major nominations covered, with only "The Last Station" being the notable one being omitted.  I have seen all of the major contenders and have high hopes for the awards.  So, here are my much belated Oscar predictions.

Films I think deserve to win are in green, films I think will win are in red, films I think should win and will win are in red and bold.

Best Picture

    Avatar
    The Blind Side
    District 9
    An Education
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglourious Basterds
    Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
    A Serious Man
    Up
    Up in the Air

This is a huge category now that the field has been expanded to 10 nominees.  I can't see how it makes much of a difference though, since only about 5 even have an outside chance of winning the award, and the rest just seem like fluff.  The major contenders are 'Up in the Air', 'Avatar', 'Inglourious Basterds' and 'The Hurt Locker'.  'Up in the Air' was the film I would have picked to be the winner two months ago, but the buzz has died down a lot, and push for 'The Hurt Locker' has swelled.  Kathryn Bigelow was awarded best director at the Golden Globes and the DGA awards, and is the front runner for the Oscar.  The winner of best director signfiicantly boosts the likelyhood of winning best picture.  'Avatar' won the Golden Globe, and its always a contender, but in the end I don't think it has enough legs with the critics to actually get best picture.  'The Hurt Locker' has had great success at the awards and will likely continue that success.  I think its a fine movie, but certainly not the best of the year.  That would be 'Inglourious Basterds', which I think is hands down the best film of the year.  The reason it might just walk away with a win is the way voting is done.  Voters have to rank all the films, and the film with the highest average rank wins.  I have to expect both 'The Hurt Locker' and 'Basterds' to be hight on most lists, giving them the most chance of winning.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron – Avatar
Lee Daniels – Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

I generally feel the best director and best picture should go to the same film, and that is no different here.  Quentin delivered a masterfully directed, paced, and edited film and deserves his dues.  This is not to take away from any of the other directors nominated.  Reitman certainly proves he is one of the best up and coming directors with two consecutive nominations.  Next time around he just might win.  Daniels took a small movie coming from no where and made it into one of the years best.  Working with big stars in other mediums and unknowns he got some of the best performances of the year.  And all Cameron did was change cinema.  There is no doubt Cameron is a film genious, and if the award was for best overall filmmaker, the award would probably go to him.  That leaves us with Bigelow, who will end up winning the award.  She is certainly not undeserving, she put together a solid movie, and one that is appealing to lots of people.  Its a slick flick with few faults, so she will pick up the metal.

Best Actor

    Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart as Bad Blake
    George Clooney – Up in the Air as Ryan Bingham
    Colin Firth – A Single Man as George Falconer
    Morgan Freeman – Invictus as Nelson Mandela
    Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker as Sgt. William James

Probably the easiest pick of the night.  The one with the clearest winner.  Jeff Bridges gave a fantastic performance, in an otherwise mediocre movie.  Not only was his acting fantastic, but it would also be kind of a career award, for being a great actor for so many years.  The other nominees don't come close.  The second place vote would go to Colin Firth, who again, gave a very good performance in an otherwise mediocre film.  Renner is a fine actor, who did a great job with his role.  Clooney and Freeman are kind of the obligatory nominees.  Both gave fine performances, but nothing all that noteworthy.  This award had better go to Bridges.

Best Actress

    Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side as Leigh Anne Tuohy
    Helen Mirren – The Last Station as Sofya Tolstoy
    Carey Mulligan – An Education as Jenny Miller
    Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire as Claireece "Precious" Jones
    Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia as Julia Child

My "Anyone but Sandra Bullock" category.  I bit the bullet and tried to give the film a fair watch.  It was painful, absolutely terrible, and so was Bullock in it.  And yet she is getting all the momentum going into the show.  It absolutely baffles me.  She will win, and I can't for the life of me figure out why.  Carey Mulligan gave a terrific, multi-layed performance in 'An Education' and easily is the best of the nominees that I've seen (unfortunately I didn't get a chance to catch Mirren's performance).  Sidibe gave a great performance, but it was very one note.  Streep was good as usual, but it was more a caricature than anything.  I was dissapointed Charlotte Gainsbourg didn't get nominated for Antichrist, as it was my favorite performance.  But all the same, I'd be happy if any of the ladies, except Bullock, won.

Best Supporting Actor

    Matt Damon – Invictus as François Pienaar
    Woody Harrelson – The Messenger as Capt. Tony Stone
    Christopher Plummer – The Last Station as Leo Tolstoy
    Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones as George Harvey
    Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds as Col. Hans Landa

Unfortunately a category that has two performances I haven't seen (Plummer and Tucci).  Fortunately, I think this category is locked up.  Waltz gave us one of the best villains ever, and a performance to match.  He should be the hands down winner.  I like Damon, but why he was nominated for Invictus is beyond me.  Harrelson was very good in The Messenger, but doesn't come close to Waltz.

Best Supporting Actress

    Penélope Cruz – Nine as Carla Albanese
    Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air as Alex Goran
    Maggie Gyllenhaal – Crazy Heart as Jean Craddock
    Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air as Natalie Keener
    Mo'Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire as Mary Lee Johnston

Once again, I missed out on a performance, this time Penelope Cruz (who, I thought was great in Broken Embraces, and might have went with if she were nominated in that role).  I wasn't blown away by either performances in 'Up in the Air', both were fine, just not great.  Gyllenhaal was also fine in Crazy Heart, but not a performance she hasn't given a few times before.  Mo'Nique is the clear stand out, giving a chilling performance in 'Precious' and should be the easy winner.

Best Animated Feature

    Coraline – Henry Selick
    Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson
    The Princess and the Frog – Ron Clements and John Musker
    The Secret of Kells – Tomm Moore
    Up – Pete Docter

After seeing 'Up' I thought it was a lock for best animated feature.  And it probably is.  But I was blown away by "Fantastic Mr. Fox', which was so original, and entertaining, it won over my vote.  'Coraline' was just weird, and kind of missed the mark on me.  I enjoyed 'The Princess and the Frog', it felt like a return to the classic Disney, and I miss those.  'The Secret of Kells' also didn't do much for me and didn't think it was quite the calibour to be nominated.

Best Foreign Language Film

    Ajami (Israel) in Arabic and Hebrew – Scandar Copti and Yaron Shani
    El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina) in Spanish – Juan José Campanella
    The Milk of Sorrow (Peru) in Spanish and Quechua – Claudia Llosa
    Un Prophète (France) in French, Corsican and Arabic – Jacques Audiard
    The White Ribbon (Germany) in German – Michael Haneke

This is one of the categories that I'm not all that prepared to pick a winner in.  I have seen the two heavy favorites, 'Un Prophete', and 'The White Ribbon'.  While, beautiful, I didn't enjoy 'The White Ribbon'.  I had a bad viewing experience with 'Un Prophete' where I watched it over a couple days, and the subtitles were off, and I came away not enjoying it all that much, but probably not fairly.  In the end I will give it to 'Un Prophet', but hope to watch at least one more in the category before the show.

Best Documentary Feature

    Burma VJ – Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
    The Cove – Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens
    Food, Inc. – Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
    The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers – Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
    Which Way Home – Rebecca Cammisa

Of the three that I saw, 'Burma VJ', 'The Cove' and 'Food Inc.', it seems like its a strong field this year. I'm really split between 'Burma VJ' and 'The Cove'. Both effected me strongly. One opened by eyes to the cruelty in Bruma and the other to the cruelty to Dolphins. In the end I'm giving it to 'The Cove' simply because its a more effective presentation.

Best Live Action Short

    The Door – Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
    Instead of Abracadabra – Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
    Kavi – Gregg Helvey
    Miracle Fish – Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
    The New Tenants – Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

One of my favorite categories at the awards is the shorts.  I try to watch all the shorts, so that I'm invested in them.  Watching these filmmakers win is special, since they are virtually unknown to everyone.  Of the five films, I enjoyed three quite a bit.  'The Door' and 'Miracle Fish' completely missed the mark for me. 'The Door' is just sad, and not really all that interesting.  'Miracle Fish' is disturbing but I'm not really sure the point of it.  'Kavi' is moving short, but falls a bit flat at the end.  'The New Tenants' is halarious, and completely over the top, but a good time.  'Instead of Abracadabra' is my clear winner though.  It is one of the funniest movies of the year, and got more laughs out of me in the 20 minutes than any other full length film.

Best Animated Short

    French Roast – Fabrice O. Joubert
    Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty – Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
    The Lady and the Reaper – Javier Recio Gracia
    Logorama – Nicolas Schmerkin
    A Matter of Loaf and Death – Nick Park

I was a bit dissapointed in this years crop of animated shorts.  'French Roast' was enjoyable and would take second place for me, but the clear winner is Wallace and Grommit's "A Matter of Load and Death".  They are still kings of the animated short.

Best Orginal Screenplay

    The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal
    Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino
    The Messenger – Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman
    A Serious Man – Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
    Up – Tom McCarthy, Bob Peterson and Pete Docter

Best Adapted Screenplay

    District 9 – Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell from Alive in Joburg by Blomkamp
    An Education – Nick Hornby from An Education by Lynn Barber
    In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche from The Thick of It created by Iannucci
    Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire – Geoffrey Fletcher from Push by Sapphire
    Up in the Air – Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner from Up in the Air by Walter Kirn

Best Documentary Short

    China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province – Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill
    The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner – Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
    The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant – Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
    Music by Prudence – Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
    Rabbit à la Berlin – Bartosz Konopka and Anna Wydra

Best Original Score

    Avatar – James Horner
    Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat
    The Hurt Locker – Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
    Sherlock Holmes – Hans Zimmer
    Up – Michael Giacchino

Best Original Song

    "Almost There" from The Princess and the Frog – Randy Newman
    "Down in New Orleans" from The Princess and the Frog – Randy Newman
    "Loin de Paname" from Paris 36 – Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas
    "Take it All" from Nine – Maury Yeston
    "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from Crazy Heart – Ryan Bingham and T-Bone Burnett

Best Sound Editing

    Avatar – Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
    The Hurt Locker – Paul N.J. Ottosson
    Inglourious Basterds – Wylie Stateman
    Star Trek – Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
    Up – Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

Best Sound Mixing

    Avatar – Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
    The Hurt Locker – Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
    Inglourious Basterds – Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
    Star Trek – Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
    Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

Best Art Direction

    Avatar – Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
    The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus – Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
    Nine – Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
    Sherlock Holmes – Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
    The Young Victoria – Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

Best Cinematography

    Avatar – Mauro Fiore
    Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – Bruno Delbonnel
    The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd
    Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson
    The White Ribbon – Christian Berger

Best Makeup

    Il Divo – Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
    Star Trek – Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
    The Young Victoria – Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

Best Costume Design

    Bright Star – Janet Patterson
    Coco Before Chanel – Catherine Leterrier
    The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus – Monique Prudhomme
    Nine – Colleen Atwood
    The Young Victoria – Sandy Powell

Best Film Editing

    Avatar – James Cameron, John Refoua and Stephen E. Rivkin
    District 9 – Julian Clarke
    The Hurt Locker – Chris Innis and Bob Murawski
    Inglourious Basterds – Sally Menke
    Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire – Joe Klotz

Best Visual Effects

    Avatar – Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
    District 9 – Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, and Matt Aitken
    Star Trek – Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton